Studies suggest Paris Agreement's warming limit could be reached sooner than expected
Last year was not only the warmest on record, but also the first that the planet's global average surface temperature measured 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the pre-industrial average from 1850-1900. That's according to data analyzed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
That wasn't the first time that the planet has hit the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold in recent years. The 12-month global temperature average from February 2023 to January 2024 also crossed this threshold. And for the first time on record, 12 straight calendar months surpassed the warming threshold from July 2023 to June 2024.
A cap of 1.5 degrees Celsius was set as the goal for the Paris Agreement because most scientists believe it's the threshold for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. Now, two new studies are warning that we are unlikely to meet this goal.
New research published in the journal Nature Climate Change found it's significantly likely that the world has already breached the 1.5 degree target. The study's authors investigated possible long-term warming scenarios based on various levels of greenhouse gas emissions and examined historical climate data, recent observations and modeling projections.

Another recent Nature Climate Change study analyzed warming trends over past decades and then applied their findings to future climate modeling projections. The authors concluded that the world would now only avoid exceeding the 1.5-degree goal by implementing very stringent emissions cuts.
Having one year, or even several years, that exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold isn't considered a failure to meet the Paris Agreement's goal since the agreement looks at the global temperature average over multiple decades. And while the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is largely symbolic, every fraction of a degree of warming increases the risk and compounds the challenges we face.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News climate unit's Matthew Glasser